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| First Vice President Riek Machar |
By Nangayi Guyson
Juba, South Sudan - The fragile peace in South Sudan is hanging by a thread, as the recent house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar has ignited widespread fears of a return to civil war.
The opposition has declared that Machar's detention invalidates the 2018 peace agreement, a deal painstakingly brokered to end a brutal conflict that ravaged the world's youngest nation.
The international community is now scrambling to prevent a further descent into chaos.Diplomatic missions, including the US embassy, have scaled down their presence, and the German government has temporarily shuttered its embassy in Juba, the capital city.
"After years of fragile peace, South Sudan is once again on the brink of civil war," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned in a statement posted on social media, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
A 'Grim' Atmosphere Grips Juba
The atmosphere in Juba is described as tense and apprehensive. Patrick Oyet, a DW correspondent and president of the Union of Journalists in South Sudan, paints a bleak picture from the ground.
"The military is patrolling the streets of Juba," he reports, "people are afraid, there is no information from the government about the way forward. We have little hope that everything will be okay."
Oyet's words reflect the palpable anxiety gripping the population, uncertain of what the future holds. The lack of clear communication from the government further fuels the unease and breeds distrust.
Humanitarian Crisis Looms as Conflict Threatens to Escalate
The potential for renewed conflict carries devastating implications for the already dire humanitarian situation in South Sudan.
Richard Orengo, the country director of the International Rescue Committee (IRC), expressed grave concerns about the possibility of a full-blown conflict.
"We are concerned that if the international community and neighboring countries do not defuse the situation in time, the situation can quickly escalate into a full-blown conflict that will exacerbate the current crisis we already have in the country," Orengo told RTN.
Since February, over 50,000 people have already been displaced due to escalating tensions and localized violence.
The IRC, working tirelessly to alleviate suffering, operates 56 nutrition stabilization centers across the country, providing critical care to acutely malnourished children.
Orengo underscores the critical importance of these facilities, warning that "if we close these centers, the children will die of malnutrition."
The humanitarian situation has been further exacerbated by the reduction in foreign aid, particularly the cuts implemented by former US President Donald Trump.
These cuts have significantly hampered the ability of aid organizations to respond to the growing needs of the population.
"South Sudan is on the brink of a humanitarian collapse," Orengo emphasized, highlighting the urgent need for increased international support.
A Crumbling Unity Government: Seeds of Discord
The current crisis stems from a breakdown in the already fragile unity government formed by President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. The two leaders, once bitter rivals, signed a peace agreement in 2018, culminating in the formation of a unity government in 2020.
However, this alliance has been plagued by deep-seated mistrust and persistent instability from the outset.
President Kiir, who leads the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), has held the presidency since South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan in 2011.
He appointed Machar, the former rebel leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), as his first vice president in an effort to foster stability.
However, recent actions by President Kiir have further eroded the already tenuous alliance. A cabinet reshuffle saw the dismissal of numerous Machar loyalists, fueling accusations of political maneuvering and undermining the power-sharing agreement.
The dismissal of the governor of Upper Nile state, a member of Machar's party, further exacerbated tensions.
Northern Violence: A Spark in the Tinderbox
The escalating violence in the north of the country between government troops and a rebel militia known as the White Army has further complicated the situation.
The White Army, allegedly allied with Machar, poses a significant threat to security and stability in the region. In early March, the White Army overran a military camp in the Nasir district of Upper Nile state, located on the border with Ethiopia and Sudan.
This brazen attack highlighted the group's growing strength and the government's inability to maintain control in certain areas.
The violence in the north serves as a stark reminder of the simmering tensions and the potential for wider conflict to erupt.
A History of Conflict and Fragile Peace
South Sudan's history is marked by decades of conflict. The country endured a long and bloody civil war against Sudan, finally achieving independence in 2011.
However, the newly independent nation soon descended into its own internal conflict in 2013, pitting President Kiir's SPLM against Vice President Machar's SPLM-IO.
The civil war claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands and displaced millions, leaving deep scars on the country and its people.
The 2018 peace agreement offered a glimmer of hope for a lasting peace, but the unity government has struggled to overcome the deep divisions and mistrust that fueled the conflict.
International Community Urged to Act Decisively
Analysts and aid organizations are urging the international community to take immediate and decisive action to prevent a return to civil war in South Sudan.
The United Nations, the African Union, and neighboring countries must work together to de-escalate tensions, promote dialogue, and ensure the safety and security of the civilian population.
The international community must also provide increased humanitarian assistance to address the growing needs of the population.
Funding for food, water, shelter, and medical care is urgently needed to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
Furthermore, the international community must hold accountable those responsible for human rights abuses and violations of international law.
Impunity for past crimes will only fuel further violence and instability.
The Future of South Sudan: A Crossroads Moment
South Sudan stands at a critical crossroads. The arrest of Vice President Riek Machar has pushed the country to the brink of renewed civil war.
The international community must act decisively to prevent a further descent into chaos and to help the people of South Sudan build a more peaceful and prosperous future.
The future of South Sudan depends on the willingness of all parties to embrace dialogue, compromise, and reconciliation.
It requires a commitment to good governance, the rule of law, and respect for human rights.
The road ahead will be long and difficult, but with the support of the international community and the determination of the South Sudanese people, a lasting peace is still possible.
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